Climate change poses a significant risk to the availability of essential nutrients from seafood, with potential declines of up to 30% by the century's end, especially impacting low-income countries. UBC research, published in 'Nature Climate Change,' underscores that high carbon emissions and low mitigation efforts could exacerbate nutrient deficits, while adherence to the Paris Agreement targets may lessen the declines. The study analyzes historical data and future projections of nutrients like calcium, iron, protein, and omega-3 fatty acids, highlighting a stagnation in nutrient availability since the 1990s despite mariculture gains.

Calcium availability is forecasted to suffer the most, with a reduction of 15-40% by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. Small pelagic fish, rich in calcium and vital in regions where dairy is less consumed, are expected to decline significantly. The anticipated increase in nutrients from seafood farming is unlikely to offset the losses from fisheries, especially under high emissions scenarios.

Nutrient availability from the tropical waters of lower-income nations is set to decline sharply by the century's end, in stark contrast to minimal declines projected for higher-income, non-tropical regions. The research indicates a global average decline in seafood-sourced nutrient availability of 4-7% per degree Celsius of warming, with tropical lower-income countries experiencing declines two to three times the global average.

The study suggests that improving the use of nutrient-rich fish like anchovies and herring for human consumption, reducing food waste, and utilizing more parts of the fish could mitigate some nutrient losses. However, these measures have their limits, and the researchers stress the importance of limiting global warming to protect marine and human health.